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Please see below for August 2017 Sales Statistics
Housing recovery a balancing act
Growth in new listings outpaced sales preventing inventory declines
Sales posted a modest gain in August, but a rise in new listings kept inventory levels elevated.
Inventories totaled 6,624 units, where over half were comprised of attached and apartment style properties. While inventories were 16 per cent higher than August 2016 levels, the slight rise in sales prevented further gains in the months-of-supply, which remain just above four months.
"Employment growth is contributing to the stability in sales activity, but it is not enough to meet the recent rise in listings and make a substantial dent in inventory levels," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
"Unemployment rates remain elevated and job growth is mostly occurring outside the energy sector, slowing the recovery process. Broader economic improvements will be required prior to it translating into substantial improvements in the housing market."
The second month of higher inventories compared to sales weighed on prices for the month. The unadjusted city wide benchmark price totaled $442,300 in August. This is 0.3 percent below last month, but remains nearly one per cent above last year's levels. Overall total residential prices remain four per cent below peak levels.
"Buyers have several options in this market, and sellers need to continue to be realistic regarding the price they expect to receive for their home," said CREB® president David P. Brown.
"While some of the buyers are re-entering the market, they are also considering all of their options prior to making a commitment."
The pace of growth in detached sales has closely matched new listings this year. However, inventory levels continue to remain at 3,280 and months of supply pushed up to 3.32. Recent gains in months-of-supply prevented further gains in prices this month. Detached prices totaled $510,900 in August. This is slightly lower than last year, but 1.5 per cent above last year's levels.
With over seven months-of-supply, the excess supply continues to weigh heavily on the apartment condominium sector. As of August, the benchmark price totaled $263,300. This is one per cent below last month and three per cent below last year's levels. Downward price pressure in this sector is expected as supply levels remain elevated in the new, resale and rental ma
Please click on the link below to see details from the 2017 CREB Forecast Breakfast.
CREB® forecasts a slow transition for housing in 2017
After a long period of economic downturn, Calgary's housing market is expected to see some price stability in 2017, but not across all market segments and property types. Both detached and attached prices remain unchanged over 2016 levels, while apartment is forecasted to contract by another two per cent.
"The transition in the housing market will be a slow process," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "We are entering the year with high unemployment rates and the possibility that job growth will not occur until the latter portion of 2017. These conditions will continue to weigh on housing demand, but supply is adjusting to weaker sales activity, which will eventually translate into price stability."
City-wide sales are forecasted to total 18,335 units in 2017, a three percent gain over 2016, but 12 percent below long-term averages. This modest demand change will merge with declining listings and easing inventory in the new home market to support more balanced conditions and prevent further downward pressure on prices.
"This year is about moving away from extremely challenging conditions," said 2017 CREB®president David P. Brown. "The transition is going to take some time, which means sellers need to stick with the fundamentals of pricing their homes correctly against other comparable product in the market. There's still lots of choice out there for buyers, but major price declines are unlikely in most segments."
Alberta's economy was much softer than many predicted over the past two years, as prolonged weakness in energy weighed on other sectors of the economy, including housing. Since the start of the downturn in late 2014, price adjustments have ranged from a low of nearly five per cent in the detached sector, to a high of 11 per cent in the apartment sector. The amount of price change between these different areas of the market was based on how much oversupply there was in each sector at any given time.
Our housing market is moving toward a new equilibrium, but that shift is heavily dependent on stability in the energy sector and overall labour markets. There is also considerable risk from recent government policy changes that could derail expected gains in the second half of 2017. It's a new outlook this year, but the market risks shouldn't be overlooked.